2024 Oscar Nomination Predictions
Taking too much for granted, getting my signals crossed
Before I begin, let me come to you with my hat in my hands. I admit it – I have been derelict in my blogging duties. I could peel off a list of excuses, ranging from graduate school applications to a lack of creative inspiration to general laziness (the latter the most accurate and least forgivable), but the fact of the matter is that none can fully make amends for my absence. I had plans to come back with a true bang, dropping an absolutely diabolical take (just you wait – I’m doing something!), but decided to ease back in with some good old awards season tomfoolery. Well, that, and the fact that the Oscar nominations come out tomorrow morning and this could not be delayed any longer.
(Apropos nothing, and as a partial apology for the radio silence, here’s a sick DJ set by the indelible Thom Yorke.)
2023 was a magnificent year for film – the best this decade, easily. The Covid-induced pause in production seems to have been a time of creative ferment for some of the medium’s great artists. Martin Scorsese, Wes Anderson, Greta Gerwig, Kelly Reichardt, Yorgos Lanthimos, Jonathan Glazer, Christopher Nolan, Alexander Payne, David Fincher, Hayao Miyazaki, Sofia Coppola, Michael Mann, Todd Haynes, Ridley Scott, Nicole Holofcener… new work by any of these filmmakers is a reward; a year in which all release films, many ranking among their very best, is a veritable bounty.
It is a rite of passage in most years, and especially those in which cinematic quality overflows, for the Oscars to be an unmitigated disaster. Recall 1999. In the year of Eyes Wide Shut, The Matrix, Fight Club, Being John Malkovich, Magnolia, and Election, Best Picture (for which none of the aforementioned were even nominated) was awarded to… American Beauty?1 More recently, in 2017 – the year in which a new generation of auteurs like Gerwig and Jordan Peele announced themselves with Lady Bird and Get Out, while seasoned masters like Nolan and Paul Thomas Anderson gifted us with Dunkirk and Phantom Thread – the big prize went to the cloying, anemic Guillermo del Toro monster romance The Shape of Water.
So to expect the Oscars to get it right is a fool’s errand, the hope of naïfs who continues to believe that “Best Picture” ought to mean best picture. (To be clear, I remain such an individual, even while recognizing my lunacy. Oh well.) Michael Schulman’s magnificent tome on the Academy Awards, “Oscar Wars” (required reading for anyone with even a passing interest in the machinations of Hollywood), details the sordid history of how the practice of film industry awards-giving became a “campaign” in which actors, directors, writers, producers, and other craftsmen “run” in different “races.” Merit be damned; this is all but a game. Those who kiss enough rings and babies can swing strange nominations (see Andrea Riseborough’s nomination for To Leslie last year) or even wins (see Renee Zellwegger’s triumph a couple years back for Judy). Unsurprisingly, though the ceremonies have always operated as such to some degree, it was Harvey Weinstein’s greasy hardball tactics in the ‘90s that shot this trend to the stratosphere. In such context, the vast historical wedge between the good and the nominated is not all that surprising.
And yet! For once, I am hopeful. Remarkable overlap exists between my personal set of favorite films of the year (a detailed account of which will come soon, dear reader) and the set of films that seem likely to get recognized based on the current state of the races. Maybe, just maybe, the times are a-changin’. Or maybe I am once again offering up my innocence only to be repaid tomorrow morning with scorn.
Best Picture
American Fiction
Anatomy of a Fall
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Past Lives
Poor Things
Oppenheimer
The Zone of Interest
Dark Horses: The Color Purple, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, May December
If Only: Asteroid City
Unusually, this is among the most settled of the races. The ten films listed above match the ten nominated by the Producers Guild of America for their annual awards, historically the strongest predictor of what shows up in the Best Picture slate. What was particularly odd about this year’s PGA nominations was the inclusion of The Zone of Interest and Anatomy of a Fall – both international films, which the PGA typically refuses to touch. Their inclusion solidifies them as the most solid ninth and tenth contenders along with the other eight (American) productions in my list, which seem basically settled. How Maestro managed to finagle its way into the “certain” bucket is beyond me… but that is the only one of these nominees that is questionable on a pure quality basis. If this is the slate, I am not being hyperbolic when I say that it is the best in at least a decade.
Best Director
Greta Gerwig (Barbie)
Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Dark Horses: Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Celine Song (Past Lives)
If Only: David Fincher (The Killer)
Where Best Picture is a meadow, Best Director is a minefield. Christopher Nolan (the frontrunner) and Martin Scorsese are arguably the only sure things here. Any combination of the remaining three in my list and my three dark horses could conceivably be announced tomorrow. I think, and hope, that the Academy will reward the artistic achievement of Glazer’s (masterful and chilling) Holocaust film, the winking cleverness of Gerwig’s blockbuster, and the sheer audacity of Lanthimos’ craft. But don’t take my word for it.
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
Dark Horses: Colman Domingo (Rustin), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)
If Only: Zac Efron (The Iron Claw)
This race had seemed locked in at the five listed above a few weeks ago, before DiCaprio’s stunning omission from the Screen Actors Guild nominations in favor of Colman Domingo’s work in Rustin. I am keeping him in the race, but it is not out of the realm of possibility that the actors’ branch of the Academy once again goes for the portrayal of a well-known figure over a performance requiring more invention and less imitation.
Best Actress
Sandra Hüller (Anatomy of a Fall)
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
Margot Robbie (Barbie)
Emma Stone (Poor Things)
Dark Horses: Annette Bening (Nyad), Greta Lee (Past Lives), Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)
If Only: Cailee Spaeny (Priscilla)
Gladstone and Stone are locked in, and I think Mulligan is as well. The question is whether Annette Bening comes in for either Sandra Hüller (who missed out on the SAG nomination) or Margot Robbie (who may get short shrift if cynicism about Barbie’s commerciality rears up unexpectedly). I don’t think the Barbie train is going to be derailed, and the Academy’s voting body tends to be more international than SAG’s, which makes a Hüller nomination marginally likelier than a Bening one. And, as a refreshing bonus, it would be deeply deserved!
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe (Poor Things)
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
Robert Downey, Jr. (Oppenheimer)
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
Dark Horses: Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Charles Melton (May December), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)
If Only: Glenn Howerton (BlackBerry)
There was a serious minute in which Charles Melton’s work in May December looked likely to not only secure a nomination, but even a win here. That possibility now looks remote. As with much of Todd Haynes’ work, critical plaudits for May December are unlikely to translate to awards acclaim – his films tend to be too subtle, too difficult, too provocative, and in this case perhaps too close to home for the Academy. (The film is about the exploitation inherent in performance – shocking that a bunch of actors wouldn’t respond to it!) Long story short, if there is any spoiler here it seems likely to be Sterling K. Brown, who snagged a SAG nomination over Mark Ruffalo for his stellar work in American Fiction. There is a chance of vote-splitting between Ruffalo and Dafoe among Poor Things fans, so if anyone is on the chopping block it’s one of those two.
Best Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
Penélope Cruz (Ferrari)
Jodie Foster (Nyad)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
Dark Horses: Julianne Moore (May December), America Ferrera (Barbie), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest)
If Only: Rachel McAdams (Are You There, God? It’s Me, Margaret)
Four locks (Blunt, Brooks, Foster, and Randolph, who I can tell you right now with near-complete certainty will win). So who grabs the fifth position? My money is on Penélope Cruz, for whom the Academy voters have a well documented abiding love (recall her against-the-odds nomination for the beautiful, still under-seen Pedro Almodóvar film Parallel Mothers). Julianne Moore is in the running, but given it is the acting body which is in charge of the acting nominations, and given how brutal May December is on the topic of actors, I don’t see her finding a way in.
Best Adapted Screenplay
American Fiction
Barbie
Killers of the Flower Moon
Oppenheimer
Poor Things
Dark Horses: The Zone of Interest, All of Us Strangers, The Color Purple
If Only: How to Blow Up a Pipeline
Barbie’s (controversial) entry into this category instead of Original Screenplay – a decision made by the Academy which infuriated Judd Apatow, for some reason – effectively locked this up. The fifth position was always a toss-up between my three dark horse candidates, and now they all look likely to be shut out. A shame for The Zone of Interest especially, which is a remarkable work of art for many reasons, not least of which is the inventiveness with which its screenplay takes and deviates from its source material.
Best Original Screenplay
Anatomy of a Fall
The Holdovers
Maestro
May December
Past Lives
Dark Horses: Air, Saltburn, The Iron Claw
If Only: Asteroid City
This too locks locked in because of the Barbie departure. Here, Maestro and May December seemed to be competing for the final slot; there is now space for both. Unless the meme-ification of the truly godawful Saltburn somehow translates to recognition here, or if voters remember the one spectacular Michael Jordan montage in Air and get nostalgic for the ‘97 Bulls, this should be the slate.
So, that’s that, then. Re-reading the above, I realize I am projecting quite an air of confidence in most of my picks. Be assured that it is just that: a projection. The only thing I am ever certain about on this night before nominations is that the Academy will confound me in ways I could not have dreamed up. We now wait to see just how…
One dear friend adores this film. I assure him that this is nothing personal.