2023 Oscar Nominations Predictions

Everything is fine. Right?

As many bad movie takes as I am happy to share with friends, few inspire as much confusion and derision as my proud, continued obsession with the Oscars. I am an unabashed and loud critic of many (most) decisions made by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences in terms of who they nominate and choose to win their little gold statuettes. If I am so certain that they will make the wrong choices all over again, how can it be rational to care about the awards at all?

In theory, the reason is that the Oscars provide a means of contextualizing a year in cinema. The choices made by the Academy can give a lens through which to view each year, both in terms of the awards they gave and, more crucially, those they did not. The King’s Speech beating The Social Network, Crash beating Brokeback Mountain, and Shakespeare in Love beating Saving Private Ryan are all absurdities. But each of these absurdities gives an opportunity to revisit each of those wonderful losers, to get a snapshot of where the industry was at the time, and to see how much (and how quickly) tastes have changed.

In practice, I love the Oscars because I am a merciless masochist who enjoys inflicting pain upon myself. And given the Academy’s penchant for rewarding saccharine pablum over the, well, good, there is nothing that can guarantee emotional devastation like doomed hope that the true best of the year will be recognized as such.

Which brings me to my predictions. What’s that word for doing something repeatedly in the same manner, hoping for a different outcome? Ah, right: insanity. My annual quest to guess the nominees for the major eight Oscars categories certainly fits the description. Invariably, my penchant for allowing personal biases to creep into the prognostication ruins my record, when a healthy dose of cynicism would have been apt.

That changes now. In the parlance of economics, this post will be more positive than normative – that is, I shall merely discuss what I believe tomorrow’s nominations will be, and not what they should be.¹ Today I am but a humble forecaster, applying a scientific, evidence-driven method to peer into the orb, my vision unclouded by distractions like “tastefulness” and “quality”. Lord knows Academy voters do not let such trivialities affect their judgment. By way of indicating where my personal preferences stand, in addition to my predictions and “dark horse” contenders in each category, I have also included an “if only” nominee who has next to no chance of a nomination, but would be on my ballot if anyone was so foolish as to admit me to the Academy.

Best Picture

All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking

Dark Horses: The Whale, Triangle of Sadness, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Aftersun, The Woman King, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

If Only: Nope

A lock for the top seven spots, and a complete minefield for the remaining three. The three movies on the chopping block among my contenders are All Quiet on the Western Front, Babylon and Women Talking. It is possible that none of these three make it (though All Quiet’s recent wellspring of momentum seems undeniable), and three of the dark horses take their places. If I were to be honest with myself, I would swap Women Talking for Darren Aronofsky’s The Whale, given the complete lack of awards-body enthusiasm for the former and the Producer’s Guild of America nomination garnered by the latter. But I find Aronofsky’s film so abominably awful that I cannot bear to put it on my final ten. (I suppose that means my high-minded attempts at pure objectivity have not even lasted a single prediction. But sometimes, you have to stick to your principles.)

Best Director

James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Todd Field, TÁR
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Dark Horses: Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)

If Only: Damien Chazelle (Babylon)

Field, the Daniels, McDonagh, and Spielberg are in. It is only Big Jim Cameron’s spot that is uncertain. Indeed, taking him is something of a bold bet, given his lack of love at the Director’s Guild of America awards, the Golden Globes, and the BAFTAs. But given the continued box office dominance of his film and the sheer scale of his technical achievement, he should edge out other onlookers like Luhrmann, Berger, and Kosinski. That being said, I would not be displeased if either of the latter two swap in; both would be eminently deserved. (Luhrmann, on the other hand…)

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dark Horses: Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)

If Only: Mia Goth (X and Pearl)

Oh, Michelle Williams. The confounding decision to campaign for her in the Best Actress category instead of Best Supporting Actress seems to have tanked her chances of a nomination, given her snubs at the BAFTAs and SAGs. If some of the perception of lost momentum around The Fabelmans – once the frontrunner in Best Picture, and now something of an outsider – is misplaced, she could conceivably come in for either de Armas or Deadwyler. More intriguing would be a swap for Margot Robbie’s manic (and sensational) turn in Babylon, while most intriguing would be a nod for Andrea Riseborough titular performance in the minuscule drama To Leslie, which has recently garnered some interest per the ever-reliable chatterings of Film Twitter. Color me skeptical.

Best Actor

Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living

Dark Horses: Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick), Diego Calva (Babylon), Adam Sandler (Hustle)

If Only: Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

Another race with a large number of certain nominees and one complete wildcard. The fifth spot (occupied on my list by Paul Mescal) is a crapshoot. I think it’s really between Mescal, Cruise, and Calva, with either of the latter two potentially coming in if the Academy is more enthusiastic than it currently seems about either Top Gun: Maverick or Babylon. Another wrench in the race is Adam Sandler’s SAG nomination, which forces me to put him on the dark horses list despite a reasonable degree of certainty that his name will not be on the nominee list tomorrow. Ah, the intrigue…

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Dark Horses: Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said), Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Claire Foy (Women Talking)

If Only: Rachel Sennott (Bodies Bodies Bodies)

At one point, Women Talking was poised to snag two or three spots in this race. But Sarah Polley’s film seems to have failed to connect with most awards bodies, and thus the once-assured nominations of Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy now look like long shots. Their spots are now occupied on my list by Hong Chau and Stephanie Hsu, both as a result of the surge of momentum behind their respective films. Mulligan or de Leon are also possible, but neither of their films look poised to make inroads in the nominations, which pushes me towards Hsu and Chau.

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Dark Horses: Brad Pitt (Babylon), Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans), Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)

If Only: Anthony Hopkins (Armageddon Time)

How Eddie Redmayne is poised for his third Oscar nomination (definitely two, and possibly three too many) for this is beyond me. Yet he has picked up precursor after precursor, and looks more assured for a nomination than even Paul Dano. I candidly have no idea if Dano will actually be nominated, or if one of my dark horses (or someone completely out of the blue, like one of the bit players in Triangle of Sadness) makes it in. All I know is that the actual best supporting part of the year, my dear old Anthony Hopkins, will be on nobody’s lips.

Best Original Screenplay

The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TÁR
Triangle of Sadness

Dark Horses: Aftersun, Babylon (though, if we’re being honest, none)

If Only: The Menu

Sealed up. The five listed are the five nominees. Not a single precursor has nominated anything different.

Best Adapted Screenplay

All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
The Whale
Women Talking

Dark Horses: She Said, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Top Gun: Maverick

If Only: After Yang

Who knows, really? This is the weakest year for Adapted Screenplay that I can remember, hence Top Gun: Maverick’s presence on the dark horses list. (I loved that film, but the calibre of its dialogue is not among my favorite three hundred things about it.) Upon some reflection, I cannot see where any of my dark horses would come in, so the five I listed will probably be the five nominees. Maybe She Said for Living? I reiterate: who knows, really.

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So, there we have it. I went in with little confidence and left with… more, difficult as it is to admit! Most races seem more locked up than I realized. Famous last words…

1. Check back later this week for my list of the best ten movies of 2022, which will I am certain stand in strong contrast to the set of ten films which will be up for Best Picture this year.