2023 Oscars Predictions
Few surprises (and fewer good ones) on the docket
I’ve already been in your inbox this morning, so I shall spare you the blah-blah and cut to the point. There is little tension or suspense in the air before the ceremony this year, either about the awards or the mechanics of the ceremony itself. Tonight, Everything Everywhere All at Once will be in serious contention for everything for which it is nominated, having dominated everywhere in awards season, though certainly not all at once. It will win something like 7 or 8 Oscars out of its 11 nominations, and that in my mind is a lower bound. Rarely in recent times has there been a more dominant behemoth in awards season – one has to go back to 2011’s The Artist and 2008’s Slumdog Millionaire to find a contender with similar records in the precursors.
During the ceremony, presenters will crack mediocre jokes about how nobody is watching the ceremony and about how nobody watched the nominated films (except Avatar and Top Gun’s sequels). One or two song performances will invigorate (Polamgattu dhummulona, potla gittha dhookinattu), while the others will fall royally flat. Host Jimmy Kimmel will reference his infamous first hosting gig when the La La Land/Moonlight fiasco happened. Polite, uncomfortable laughter will ring throughout the Dolby.
If you can sense fatigue in these words, you are not mistaken. I confess that even I, an Oscars obsessive, am somewhat worn out by these ceremonies, which each year of late have strained credulity in terms of the sheer volume of gaffes and botch-ups that can be crammed into an overstretched 3 hour ceremony. I hope to be pleasantly surprised this evening by a night that celebrates the past, present, and future of cinema. I am also less optimistic than ever.
On that characteristically cheery note, here is who I think should and will win every award this evening. I’ll pontificate about the major eight or so awards, and then list my other predictions with less commentary.
Best Picture
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: The Banshees of Inisherin, All Quiet on the Western Front
Should Win: TÁR
TÁR is pretty easily the best film up for Best Picture, but it won’t win. That will be Everything Everywhere All at Once, which is coming off an astonishing run of winning at every single major precursor besides the notoriously unreliable BAFTAs and Golden Globes. The top prize at the PGAs, DGAs, SAGs, WGAs, ACE Eddies, and Independent Spirit Awards all went its way; it would be an utter miracle if anything else snatches away Best Picture from EEAAO’s ever-tightening grasp.
Best Director
Will Win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could/Should Win: Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
“The Daniels” have this basically sealed up after their DGA win. I think their direction in EEAAO is actually the weakest part of the film, with some bits becoming a tad too extravagant in their weirdness. It would probably have benefited from a bit more directing, in the sense of a more ruthless edge in determining what to slim down and/or excise. Though he has won twice before, Steven Spielberg is the worthiest contender amongst a strong bunch. His work on The Fabelmans is truly extraordinary, peppered with shots the likes of which he has never constructed in his career – quite an achievement, given that it is upwards of half a century long!
Best Actress
Will Win: Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could/Should Win: Cate Blanchett, TÁR
I’m betting that her SAG award is the last push of momentum Michelle Yeoh needs to propel past Cate Blanchett and snag Best Actress. That, along with the fact that the Academy has rewarded Blanchett twice before, and might be interested in spreading the wealth. Good as Yeoh undeniably is, Blanchett’s is simply one of the best performances I’ve ever seen, ranking with Daniel Day-Lewis in There Will Be Blood as one of the century’s greatest. She should, could, but ultimately won’t win.
Best Actor
Will Win: Austin Butler, Elvis
Could Win: Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Should Win: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Very, very tight race. It is really a coin toss between Butler and Fraser, but I’m ultimately giving the edge to Butler, both because his performance is better and because the Academy is historically apt to choose an imitation of a known entity over an original character in the acting categories. My favorite among the nominees is Colin Farrell, whose innocence and sweetness as Pádraic in The Banshees of Inisherin is integral to how the film shatters your heart into a million pieces.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could Win: Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Should Win: Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Until yesterday I was still thinking this was Bassett’s award to lose, but upon further reflection it is more likely to be Jamie Lee Curtis here. Multiple things work in her favor: a sense that “it’s time,” the immense momentum of EEAAO, and perhaps most of all a likely unwillingness of the Academy to reward anything associated with the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Odd, as JLC is frankly awful in Everything Everywhere, while Bassett’s grief-struck performance is the one shining light that saves the Black Panther sequel from being just another ream of uninspired Marvel shlock. Kerry Condon as the harried sister of Colin Farrell’s Pádraic is my pick, beautifully embodying an admixture of discontentment and loneliness that adds another layer to the film’s overarching, abundant melancholy.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could/Should Win: Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan’s win in this category was the first sure thing for EEAAO during awards season, and the beginning of its sprint to Oscars dominance. He is marvelous in EEAAO, and his story of discrimination and decades of struggle to find work in Hollywood after success as a child star is irresistible for (often rightly) self-hating Academy voters. He is a worthy winner, even if my heart is with Barry Keoghan in Banshees, whose line reading of “There goes that dream” is the single most devastating moment in film in 2022.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will/Should Win: Women Talking
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Sarah Polley’s adaptation of Miriam Toews’ 2018 novel is angry, incisive, and beautiful. It won at the WGAs and the USC Scripter Awards (the two major precursors for Adapted Screenplay), will win here, and utterly deserves to do so. The main potential spoiler is All Quiet on the Western Front, which seems to be the only contender that has enough support (primarily among technical types, who appreciate the craft on display) to potentially dethrone EEAAO in Best Picture, so perhaps that light momentum could residually give it a win here. Unlikely, though.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could/Should Win: The Banshees of Inisherin, TÁR
The EEAAO train marches on. It won the WGA, and it would be a tremendous surprise if it didn’t win here. It is an outside possibility that Banshees or TÁR plays spoiler (both outcomes I would be personally quite happy with), but EEAAO’s comforting sweetness is an elixir that few seem to be able to resist, while Banshees and TÁR are both fairly feel-bad. This is close to a lock.
Best International Feature
Will/Should Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: Nothing else!
All Quiet on the Western Front is nominated for Best Picture. None of the other International Feature nominees are. Game over.
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: Navalny
Could Win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Fire of Love, All That Breathes
Should Win: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
The immediate political valence of Navalny will triumph over the less immediate (but still very much present) political valence of All the Beauty and the Bloodshed. Both are magnificent documentaries, though my preference is marginally weighted towards the latter, which has an innovative design and structure that Navalny lacks. That being said, the documentary wing of the Academy is notoriously eccentric, so any of the nominated films aside from perhaps A House Made of Splinters could conceivably come out victorious.
Best Animated Feature
Will/Should Win: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Could Win: Nah, this is locked.
Del Toro is adored by the Academy, especially craftspeople. The technical achievement of his fascist Italy-set rendition of the story of Geppetto and his puppet son is spectacular to behold, and will rightly claim the top animation prize.
Best Editing
Will Win: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Could/Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
As with the acting categories, the Academy tends to confuse “best” with “most” in editing. EEAAO dominates the latter, and will thus win (having already won the ACE Eddie precursor). The former is really the realm of Top Gun: Maverick, which somehow coerced 700 hours of IMAX footage captured in fighter jets into cohesive, thrilling dogfight sequences. Goddamn, what a picture.
Best Cinematography
Will Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Could Win: Elvis
Should Win: Any one of a bunch of movies outrageously snubbed
This category is a bit of a joke. Of the five nominees, I think only All Quiet is truly among the five best photographed films last year. The other four should have been The Batman, my beloved Babylon, Avatar: The Way of Water and above all Top Gun bloody Maverick! What are we doing here people!?
Best Production Design
Will/Should Win: Babylon
Could Win: Elvis
Best Costume Design
Will Win: Elvis
Could/Should Win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will/Should Win: Elvis
Could Win: The Whale
Best Sound
Will/Should Win: Top Gun: Maverick
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Visual Effects
Will/Should Win: Avatar: The Way of Water
Could Win: James Cameron invented a whole new mode of motion capture for this…
Best Music (Original Score)
Will/Should Win: Babylon
Could Win: All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Music (Original Song)
Will/Should Win: “Naatu Naatu”, RRR
Could Win: Watch the video below – especially the bit with suspenders – and tell me in good faith you think anything else is possible.
Best Animated Short
Will Win: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Could Win: My Year of Dicks
Best Documentary Short
Will Win: The Elephant Whisperers
Could Win: Stranger at the Gate
Best Live Action Short
Will Win: Le Pupille
Could Win: An Irish Goodbye
Saved by the bell! Finished this off just in time to send it your way just before the ceremony starts. See you on the other side.